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Analyst: This morning's drop is a typical "Deleveraging Plunge" scenario. If the forced liquidation volume continues to decrease, it indicates that the deleveraging process is nearing completion.
BlockBeats News, January 19, CryptoQuant analyst Axel posted on social media that during January 13 to 15, the "Bitcoin: Fear & Greed Index" rose to around 80%, entering the extreme greed territory, coinciding with the price approaching a local high near $97,000. Today, the index has plummeted to 44.9%, breaking below the 50% neutral threshold.
Axel explained that the "Bitcoin: Fear & Greed Index" composite index combines volume-weighted average price, net active exchange deposits, open interest delta, and long/short volume difference. Breaking below the neutral line signifies a shift in market structure and deteriorating risk quality. Reclaiming the level above 50% and holding steady would be the first signal of market stabilization; further probing into the 20% extreme fear territory could trigger a deeper adjustment risk.
In this morning's drop, the hourly liquidation amount exceeded $205 million. The spot oscillator surged to +97.96%, indicating that the liquidations were almost entirely dominated by long positions. The scale of liquidations shows that this was forced liquidation rather than active selling, typical of the "deleveraging cascade" pattern in an overheated market. If the liquidation volume continues to decrease in the next few hours, it indicates that the deleveraging process is nearing completion.
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