Bitcoin's 500-Day Rule Buy Signal: Analysis of ETF Era Impact
The '500-Day Rule' based on Bitcoin's halving is signaling a return to a buying phase. This strategy suggests that purchasing Bitcoin approximately 500 days before the halving and selling it 500 days after can yield high returns. With the next halving set for April 20, 2024, the next buying opportunity may begin around the end of November, with the selling point expected around mid-August 2029. However, market experts point out that the historical formula may not apply as straightforwardly in this cycle. The introduction of a U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF is shifting the price determinants from supply reduction to institutional capital inflow. The inflow of ETF funds is expected to reach between $100 million and $1 billion per day during 2024-2025, surpassing the supply reduction effect of approximately 450 BTC produced daily by miners. Conversely, some experts argue that the structural impact of halving remains valid, emphasizing that Bitcoin's four-year cycle is a core element sustaining market structure. The market is likely to confirm the validity of the 500-Day Rule by 2029.
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