Claims of 47% Rice Price Increase, Public Indicators Show 3.8%

Claims have emerged that rice prices have risen by over 47% since the Iran war, but public indicators have not shown a corresponding increase. The current shock appears to be more related to the pressure on production and transportation costs due to fertilizers, maritime logistics, and insurance rather than the rice itself.

CryptoBriefing cited Hedgeye analysis stating that U.S. rice prices rose by over 47% following the U.S.-Israel airstrikes on Iran on February 28, 2026. However, it remains unclear what formulas, samples, or indicators this figure is based on, as it is only mentioned in public articles.

The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) stated in its July 2026 global food price index report that the overall rice price index remained relatively stable. While the price of indica rice has slightly increased, this was offset by a slowdown in demand for other major trading varieties.

The flow of U.S. retail prices also deviated from the claim of a 47% increase. According to data from the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank (FRED) published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the average price of long-grain white rice in U.S. cities rose from $1.060 per pound in March 2026 to $1.100 in July. The simple comparison shows an increase rate of about 3.8%.

The differences in indicators also affect interpretations. The FAO rice price index reflects international trading price trends, while FRED's white rice price is closer to the consumer price in U.S. cities. If Hedgeye's 47% figure used different wholesale, futures, or regional prices, it would be difficult to compare on the same basis.

The impact of the war has manifested more in production costs and logistics than in food commodity prices. Reuters reported on March 16 that fertilizer production heavily relies on natural gas, with energy accounting for up to 70% of production costs. Fertilizer trade through the Strait of Hormuz was reported to account for about one-third of global trade.

The export price of Middle Eastern urea fertilizers has risen by about 40%, from under $500 per ton before the war to just over $700. Fertilizer prices in the U.S. have also reportedly increased by up to 32% since the war began. Since fertilizer and fuel prices are directly reflected in agricultural production costs, it is difficult to judge rice prices based solely on a single item’s market price.

The Strait of Hormuz is a key route where crude oil, fertilizers, and maritime logistics intersect. Earlier, we reported Brent crude oil reaching $90.03 during trading, following the resumption of Houthi attacks in the Red Sea. Since about one-fifth of the world’s traded crude oil passes through this strait, fluctuations in energy costs and freight rates can indirectly affect agricultural prices.

The Asian rice market has shown mixed trends regionally. According to Reuters on August 16, the export price of Indian 5% broken parboiled rice rose to $362-$368 per ton, up from the previous week. Indian rice exports increased by 5% in the first half of 2026 compared to the previous year, but basmati exports decreased due to trade disruptions in the Gulf region.

Bangladesh has approved the import of 100,000 tons of Vietnamese parboiled rice to lower domestic rice prices. The price of Vietnamese 5% broken rice was reported at $435-$455 per ton, while Thai 5% broken rice was at $450-$455 per ton. This shows regional strength but does not directly lead to the conclusion that global rice prices have surged by 47%.

In Iran, rice prices are under separate inflationary pressures. The FAO Iran country brief stated that retail rice prices in Tehran reached an all-time high in April 2026, continuing an upward trend since July 2025. However, the main reason cited was a sharp decline in currency value, with the war and rising fuel and fertilizer prices further pushing inflation.

In the food market, rice is a commodity where regional varieties and export regulations significantly affect prices. Demand varies by variety, such as indica, japonica, and basmati, and the stock levels and government interventions of major exporting countries also influence prices. Generalizing the retail price of one region or a specific indicator as a global rice price trend can exaggerate actual price pressures.

For Korean readers, the critical point is not the sharp rise in a single rice item but the overall food price and supply chain costs. The Iran war can push agricultural costs up through crude oil, maritime logistics, and fertilizers. However, the trends shown by public indicators do not indicate a comprehensive surge in rice prices but rather pressure through cost pathways.

In the crypto market, this issue is more of a macro variable than a direct positive or negative factor. When food and energy costs rise simultaneously, inflationary concerns increase, which can also affect the preference for risk assets. The direct impact of rice prices on Bitcoin (BTC) or Ethereum (ETH) prices needs to be verified through separate indicators.

Based on the publicly available figures so far, the claim of a 47% increase is difficult to use as a general trend in the rice market. The FAO's July rice price index was stable, and the increase rate of the average price of long-grain white rice in U.S. cities from March to July was about 3.8%.

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