Easing US-Iran Tensions Drive Global Risk Assets Rebound, Brent Oil Falls Below $90

On August 25, expectations for a de-escalation in the US-Iran conflict rose, leading to a broad rebound in global risk assets. The US is preparing to allow evacuated diplomatic personnel to return to its embassy in the Middle East, and the market believes that Washington is unlikely to engage in a full-scale conflict with Iran in the short term. Brent crude oil briefly fell below $90 per barrel, with a daily decline of over 3%; WTI crude oil also dropped about 3%. US stock futures rose, with the S&P 500 futures up 0.4% and the Nasdaq 100 futures up 0.9%, led by the semiconductor sector. Nvidia saw a pre-market increase of about 0.9%, potentially ending a streak of seven consecutive trading days of decline; AI-related stocks such as Micron and Seagate also showed significant strength. The yield on the US 10-year Treasury bond fell by about 3 basis points to 4.66%, with declining bond yields providing support for risk assets. In the cryptocurrency market, BTC briefly surpassed $80,000 for the first time since mid-May, although the gains later narrowed. The market believes that the renewed interest in dollar depreciation trades, along with recent interventions by US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen in the bond market, has prompted some funds to seek dollar alternative assets, supporting BTC's rise. The market continues to focus on Nvidia's earnings report, US PCE inflation data, and Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Walsh's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting, as these events may further determine the direction of market and interest rate expectations in September.

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