Harsh Reality: Unpacking the Three Major Contradictions of the Current Airdrop Market

By: blockbeats|2025/02/18 13:30:05
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Original Article Title: "Harsh Reality: The Three Major Contradictions of the Current Airdrop Market"
Original Article Author: 0x Director, Crypto KOL

2024 Airdrop Data Spreadsheet:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10l-dsjtrFiFAPBGmUNqwVZSviJ4O0lRypEd4Oc9tCZU/edit?gid=0#gid=0

Foreword

The current airdrop market has entered a naked scramble for interests. While project teams tacitly allow data manipulation to attract funding, they also engage in large-scale cleansing before the airdrop; meanwhile, airdrop hunters are desperately playing in the dilemma of "you may not get anything if you hunt, but you'll definitely get nothing if you don't." This game without a referee has exposed the most acute contradiction in the airdrop market—the rift between data bubble and real value, and the conflict between short-term gains and long-term ecosystem.

The Director used airdrop data from 100 projects in 2024 to reveal the latest trends and dark rules of airdrops—who is harvesting? Who is being harvested?

1. Project Team Goal Conflict

Core Contradiction: Data Growth Demand (Creating a Bubble) vs. Controlling Token Outflow (Eliminating the Bubble)

"We are well aware that over 80% of the addresses are from studios, but we have to rely on them for ecosystem bootstrapping."

—CTO of a certain L2 protocol

Project teams face a dilemma before TGE:

· Left Hand Creating a Bubble: Allowing studios to batch inflate metrics to create on-chain data prosperity (TVL/trading volume/user count) to attract funding;

· Right Hand Bursting the Bubble: Conducting address filtering before the airdrop, performing large-scale cleansing;

1. Airdrop Type Data Analysis

The Director compiled airdrop rules for 100 projects in 2024 and outlined the percentage of various types of airdrops:

Harsh Reality: Unpacking the Three Major Contradictions of the Current Airdrop Market

Based on project data analysis, Interaction, NFT Holding, and Points Airdrops constitute the current market's three mainstream mechanisms.

· Interactive Airdrop: The main airdrop method, mainly focused on testnets and mainnets, where projects use a series of tasks, such as Odyssey events, to increase on-chain interaction data and TVL to attract funding. However, excessive interaction can lead to address washing by the project team. For example, 803,000 addresses on LayerZero were identified as witches, 40% of addresses on Linea were identified as witches, and high-frequency interactive users on StarkNet were flagged as bots;

· NFT Holding Airdrop: Secondly, NFTs, OAT, etc., are often used as airdrop vouchers, with most of them requiring continuous tasks to be performed to obtain them, or in the form of whitelisting requiring spending funds to mint. These types of NFTs are usually tradable on-chain, which also poses potential insider trading risks, is difficult to identify, and has concentrated chip control (e.g., FUEL and Berachain's NFTs, with unreasonable airdrop distribution ratios);

· Points-based Airdrop: Currently the mainstream method, different from tokens, points belong to centralized data, are susceptible to tampering, and lack transparency. They can be infinitely inflated and have rules that can be arbitrarily adjusted, casting doubt on the fairness of the airdrop. For example, ME (points of witch addresses are directly reset, and the exchange rate is also different), and Linea (LXP is an SBT, which is another form of points, and holders may ultimately not receive the airdrop). Points-based airdrops also face serious suspicions of insider trading (e.g., EigenLayer's snapshot incident, Blast's points inflation, and IO's controversies over "point shrinkage and point theft," all have possible suspicions of insider trading);

Other types of airdrops such as staking, developer rewards, voting, etc., are also different ways for projects to select airdrop recipients. However, the lack of transparency in the rules, insider trading, and privileged information cast doubt on the fairness of airdrops.

2. Market Games and Project Strategy Choices

The current market is a zero-sum game, with a limited cake. It is impossible to satisfy oneself, VCs, users, and exchanges at the same time. Therefore, project teams must engage in dynamic games to allocate benefits and extract value. Faced with the contradiction of airdrop incentives, project teams usually adopt two typical strategies:

· Sunshine Type: Suitable for small projects or projects with generous rewards, such as HYPT, where there is virtually no screening, and every address is rewarded. These projects are generally blind airdrops with no clear airdrop rules, making it impossible to determine the odds and difficult to attract a large number of studios;

· Strict Screening Type: Suitable for large projects, usually filtering users based on points, interaction frequency, rankings, witch checks, etc., using a last-place elimination system. For example, SCR (only addresses with 200 points or more qualify for the airdrop), Runes (screening through holding inscriptions and NFTs), ZKSync and StarkNet (multi-condition screening), LayerZero (witch reporting system). Although these strategies improve the precision of reward distribution, they also increase participation uncertainty, putting rug pullers in a passive position in the rules game;

2. Participant's Inner Conflict

Core Conflict: To Rug Pull or Not to Rug Pull

Participants also face a dilemma:

· To Rug Pull or Not to Rug Pull If they completely abstain from participating in the project, they will definitely miss out on airdrop rewards. To strive for potential gains, many users have to actively engage in various tasks and activities, investing a significant amount of time and resources, thereby further intensifying market saturation and participant anxiety;

· Even If They Rug Pull, It's Not Guaranteed to Succeed Even with significant investment, there is no guarantee of receiving the rewards. User input does not necessarily correlate with output, as project teams use various means to filter addresses. The complex screening mechanisms lead many participants to lose their airdrop eligibility due to strategic errors or being misjudged as negative actors.

Excessive Competition and Investment Risks

In their quest for limited rewards, users are forced to "rug pull" a large amount of data and activity. However, at the same time, the intricate and opaque rules and strict screening criteria make it difficult for participants to predict their actual returns;

By 2024, out of 100 projects, 32 will explicitly witch-hunt. The screening criteria of most project teams are not disclosed publicly, and the audit process is a black-box operation, entirely controlled by the project teams. Users are like lambs to the slaughter, arbitrarily judged. The following chart analyzes the types of negative actors:

The core criteria for witch-hunting by project teams include:

· Homogeneous Interactions: A large number of identical operation patterns are the main reasons for being identified as negative actors;

· Address Aggregation Behavior: Multiple addresses executing similar operations at the same time and in the same environment are easily identifiable and liquidated;

· IP, Device, Front-end Interaction: More and more project teams analyze user behavior through front-end data, making simple strategies like changing IP addresses or devices ineffective;

To survive in this airdrop game, relying solely on funds and luck is far from enough. It also requires more sophisticated interaction strategies, stronger technical support, higher anti-detection capabilities, and continuous investment and perseverance.

3. Project Team's Conflict with Rug Pullers

The Core Contradiction: A Loss for One is a Loss for All VS A Win for One is a Win for All

In the airdrop incentive game, a "symbiotic" relationship has been formed between the project team and the airdrop hunters, where their fates are closely intertwined:

· Mutual Prosperity: When both parties achieve a relatively balanced incentive mechanism, it can attract a sufficient amount of active data while ensuring ecosystem quality. Both the project team and users can benefit from it;

· Mutual Loss: If either party becomes unbalanced, whether it is due to the project team's improper airdrop strategy or the airdrop hunters excessively gaming the system, it will ultimately have a negative impact on the entire ecosystem, and both parties will find it difficult to thrive independently.

Dynamic Game:

· When participating in airdrop activities, project teams usually set certain thresholds. For example, Linea's Proof of Humanity (POH) certification or IP whitelist thresholds. When the project team sets a loose participation threshold, airdrop hunters can participate in large numbers, leading to a sudden surge in data in the short term. However, once this bubble effect is cleaned up by strict filtering mechanisms, the entire ecosystem may face the dilemma of severe disconnection between data and actual user activity. For example, after LayerZero announced the completion of the snapshot, the number of active on-chain addresses plummeted steeply;

· Conversely, when designing the rules, project teams raise the participation threshold to ensure that only truly active users contributing real value can receive rewards. Although such a high threshold prevents a sudden surge in the number of participants, it leads to a healthy and stable growth of active on-chain addresses, avoiding the creation of a data bubble.

The essence of an airdrop is the dynamic game of interests between the project team and users. For airdrop hunters, to consistently receive rewards, they must strategize meticulously, improve interaction quality, and even build long-term value; for the project team, they should not deliberately pursue funding, aim for a large user base, or focus on short-term prosperity. Instead, their core task should be how to build a long-term sustainable ecosystem and truly provide value support.

Original Article Link

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China's Central Bank and Eight Other Departments' Latest Regulatory Focus: Key Attention to RWA Tokenized Asset Risk


Foreword: Today, the People's Bank of China's website published the "Notice of the People's Bank of China, National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Ministry of Public Security, State Administration for Market Regulation, China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, China Securities Regulatory Commission, State Administration of Foreign Exchange on Further Preventing and Dealing with Risks Related to Virtual Currency and Others (Yinfa [2026] No. 42)", the latest regulatory requirements from the eight departments including the central bank, which are basically consistent with the regulatory requirements of recent years. The main focus of the regulation is on speculative activities such as virtual currency trading, exchanges, ICOs, overseas platform services, and this time, regulatory oversight of RWA has been added, explicitly prohibiting RWA tokenization, stablecoins (especially those pegged to the RMB). The following is the full text:


To the people's governments of all provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities directly under the Central Government, the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps:


  Recently, there have been speculative activities related to virtual currency and Real-World Assets (RWA) tokenization, disrupting the economic and financial order and jeopardizing the property security of the people. In order to further prevent and address the risks related to virtual currency and Real-World Assets tokenization, effectively safeguard national security and social stability, in accordance with the "Law of the People's Republic of China on the People's Bank of China," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Commercial Banks," "Securities Law of the People's Republic of China," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Securities Investment Funds," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Futures and Derivatives," "Cybersecurity Law of the People's Republic of China," "Regulations of the People's Republic of China on the Administration of Renminbi," "Regulations on Prevention and Disposal of Illegal Fundraising," "Regulations of the People's Republic of China on Foreign Exchange Administration," "Telecommunications Regulations of the People's Republic of China," and other provisions, after reaching consensus with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, and with the approval of the State Council, the relevant matters are notified as follows:


  I. Clarify the essential attributes of virtual currency, Real-World Assets tokenization, and related business activities


  (I) Virtual currency does not possess the legal status equivalent to fiat currency. Virtual currencies such as Bitcoin, Ether, Tether, etc., have the main characteristics of being issued by non-monetary authorities, using encryption technology and distributed ledger or similar technology, existing in digital form, etc. They do not have legal tender status, should not and cannot be circulated and used as currency in the market.


  The business activities related to virtual currency are classified as illegal financial activities. The exchange of fiat currency and virtual currency within the territory, exchange of virtual currencies, acting as a central counterparty in buying and selling virtual currencies, providing information intermediary and pricing services for virtual currency transactions, token issuance financing, and trading of virtual currency-related financial products, etc., fall under illegal financial activities, such as suspected illegal issuance of token vouchers, unauthorized public issuance of securities, illegal operation of securities and futures business, illegal fundraising, etc., are strictly prohibited across the board and resolutely banned in accordance with the law. Overseas entities and individuals are not allowed to provide virtual currency-related services to domestic entities in any form.


  A stablecoin pegged to a fiat currency indirectly fulfills some functions of the fiat currency in circulation. Without the consent of relevant authorities in accordance with the law and regulations, any domestic or foreign entity or individual is not allowed to issue a RMB-pegged stablecoin overseas.


(II)Tokenization of Real-World Assets refers to the use of encryption technology and distributed ledger or similar technologies to transform ownership rights, income rights, etc., of assets into tokens (tokens) or other interests or bond certificates with token (token) characteristics, and carry out issuance and trading activities.


  Engaging in the tokenization of real-world assets domestically, as well as providing related intermediary, information technology services, etc., which are suspected of illegal issuance of token vouchers, unauthorized public offering of securities, illegal operation of securities and futures business, illegal fundraising, and other illegal financial activities, shall be prohibited; except for relevant business activities carried out with the approval of the competent authorities in accordance with the law and regulations and relying on specific financial infrastructures. Overseas entities and individuals are not allowed to illegally provide services related to the tokenization of real-world assets to domestic entities in any form.


  II. Sound Work Mechanism


  (III) Inter-agency Coordination. The People's Bank of China, together with the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Public Security, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other departments, will improve the work mechanism, strengthen coordination with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, coordinate efforts, and overall guide regions to carry out risk prevention and disposal of virtual currency-related illegal financial activities.


  The China Securities Regulatory Commission, together with the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Public Security, the People's Bank of China, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other departments, will improve the work mechanism, strengthen coordination with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, coordinate efforts, and overall guide regions to carry out risk prevention and disposal of illegal financial activities related to the tokenization of real-world assets.


  (IV) Strengthening Local Implementation. The people's governments at the provincial level are overall responsible for the prevention and disposal of risks related to virtual currencies and the tokenization of real-world assets in their respective administrative regions. The specific leading department is the local financial regulatory department, with participation from branches and dispatched institutions of the State Council's financial regulatory department, telecommunications regulators, public security, market supervision, and other departments, in coordination with cyberspace departments, courts, and procuratorates, to improve the normalization of the work mechanism, effectively connect with the relevant work mechanisms of central departments, form a cooperative and coordinated working pattern between central and local governments, effectively prevent and properly handle risks related to virtual currencies and the tokenization of real-world assets, and maintain economic and financial order and social stability.


  III. Strengthened Risk Monitoring, Prevention, and Disposal


  (5) Enhanced Risk Monitoring. The People's Bank of China, China Securities Regulatory Commission, National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Ministry of Public Security, State Administration of Foreign Exchange, Cyberspace Administration of China, and other departments continue to improve monitoring techniques and system support, enhance cross-departmental data analysis and sharing, establish sound information sharing and cross-validation mechanisms, promptly grasp the risk situation of activities related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization. Local governments at all levels give full play to the role of local monitoring and early warning mechanisms. Local financial regulatory authorities, together with branches and agencies of the State Council's financial regulatory authorities, as well as departments of cyberspace and public security, ensure effective connection between online monitoring, offline investigation, and fund tracking, efficiently and accurately identify activities related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization, promptly share risk information, improve early warning information dissemination, verification, and rapid response mechanisms.


  (6) Strengthened Oversight of Financial Institutions, Intermediaries, and Technology Service Providers. Financial institutions (including non-bank payment institutions) are prohibited from providing account opening, fund transfer, and clearing services for virtual currency-related business activities, issuing and selling financial products related to virtual currency, including virtual currency and related financial products in the scope of collateral, conducting insurance business related to virtual currency, or including virtual currency in the scope of insurance liability. Financial institutions (including non-bank payment institutions) are prohibited from providing custody, clearing, and settlement services for unauthorized real-world asset tokenization-related business and related financial products. Relevant intermediary institutions and information technology service providers are prohibited from providing intermediary, technical, or other services for unauthorized real-world asset tokenization-related businesses and related financial products.


  (7) Enhanced Management of Internet Information Content and Access. Internet enterprises are prohibited from providing online business venues, commercial displays, marketing, advertising, or paid traffic diversion services for virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization-related business activities. Upon discovering clues of illegal activities, they should promptly report to relevant departments and provide technical support and assistance for related investigations and inquiries. Based on the clues transferred by the financial regulatory authorities, the cyberspace administration, telecommunications authorities, and public security departments should promptly close and deal with websites, mobile applications (including mini-programs), and public accounts engaged in virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization-related business activities in accordance with the law.


  (8) Strengthened Entity Registration and Advertisement Management. Market supervision departments strengthen entity registration and management, and enterprise and individual business registrations must not contain terms such as "virtual currency," "virtual asset," "cryptocurrency," "crypto asset," "stablecoin," "real-world asset tokenization," or "RWA" in their names or business scopes. Market supervision departments, together with financial regulatory authorities, legally enhance the supervision of advertisements related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization, promptly investigating and handling relevant illegal advertisements.


  (IX) Continued Rectification of Virtual Currency Mining Activities. The National Development and Reform Commission, together with relevant departments, strictly controls virtual currency mining activities, continuously promotes the rectification of virtual currency mining activities. The people's governments of various provinces take overall responsibility for the rectification of "mining" within their respective administrative regions. In accordance with the requirements of the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments in the "Notice on the Rectification of Virtual Currency Mining Activities" (NDRC Energy-saving Building [2021] No. 1283) and the provisions of the "Guidance Catalog for Industrial Structure Adjustment (2024 Edition)," a comprehensive review, investigation, and closure of existing virtual currency mining projects are conducted, new mining projects are strictly prohibited, and mining machine production enterprises are strictly prohibited from providing mining machine sales and other services within the country.


  (X) Severe Crackdown on Related Illegal Financial Activities. Upon discovering clues to illegal financial activities related to virtual currency and the tokenization of real-world assets, local financial regulatory authorities, branches of the State Council's financial regulatory authorities, and other relevant departments promptly investigate, determine, and properly handle the issues in accordance with the law, and seriously hold the relevant entities and individuals legally responsible. Those suspected of crimes are transferred to the judicial authorities for processing according to the law.


 (XI) Severe Crackdown on Related Illegal and Criminal Activities. The Ministry of Public Security, the People's Bank of China, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, as well as judicial and procuratorial organs, in accordance with their respective responsibilities, rigorously crack down on illegal and criminal activities related to virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, such as fraud, money laundering, illegal business operations, pyramid schemes, illegal fundraising, and other illegal and criminal activities carried out under the guise of virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, etc.


  (XII) Strengthen Industry Self-discipline. Relevant industry associations should enhance membership management and policy advocacy, based on their own responsibilities, advocate and urge member units to resist illegal financial activities related to virtual currency and the tokenization of real-world assets. Member units that violate regulatory policies and industry self-discipline rules are to be disciplined in accordance with relevant self-regulatory management regulations. By leveraging various industry infrastructure, conduct risk monitoring related to virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, and promptly transfer issue clues to relevant departments.


  IV. Strict Supervision of Domestic Entities Engaging in Overseas Business Activities


(XIII) Without the approval of relevant departments in accordance with the law and regulations, domestic entities and foreign entities controlled by them may not issue virtual currency overseas.


  (XIV) Domestic entities engaging directly or indirectly in overseas external debt-based tokenization of real-world assets, or conducting asset securitization activities abroad based on domestic ownership rights, income rights, etc. (hereinafter referred to as domestic equity), should be strictly regulated in accordance with the principles of "same business, same risk, same rules." The National Development and Reform Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other relevant departments regulate it according to their respective responsibilities. For other forms of overseas real-world asset tokenization activities based on domestic equity by domestic entities, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, together with relevant departments, supervise according to their division of responsibilities. Without the consent and filing of relevant departments, no unit or individual may engage in the above-mentioned business.


  (15) Overseas subsidiaries and branches of domestic financial institutions providing Real World Asset Tokenization-related services overseas shall do so legally and prudently. They shall have professional personnel and systems in place to effectively mitigate business risks, strictly implement customer onboarding, suitability management, anti-money laundering requirements, and incorporate them into the domestic financial institutions' compliance and risk management system. Intermediaries and information technology service providers offering Real World Asset Tokenization services abroad based on domestic equity or conducting Real World Asset Tokenization business in the form of overseas debt for domestic entities directly or indirectly venturing abroad must strictly comply with relevant laws and regulations. They should establish and improve relevant compliance and internal control systems in accordance with relevant normative requirements, strengthen business and risk control, and report the business developments to the relevant regulatory authorities for approval or filing.


  V. Strengthen Organizational Implementation


  (16) Strengthen organizational leadership and overall coordination. All departments and regions should attach great importance to the prevention of risks related to virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization, strengthen organizational leadership, clarify work responsibilities, form a long-term effective working mechanism with centralized coordination, local implementation, and shared responsibilities, maintain high pressure, dynamically monitor risks, effectively prevent and mitigate risks in an orderly and efficient manner, legally protect the property security of the people, and make every effort to maintain economic and financial order and social stability.


  (17) Widely carry out publicity and education. All departments, regions, and industry associations should make full use of various media and other communication channels to disseminate information through legal and policy interpretation, analysis of typical cases, and education on investment risks, etc. They should promote the illegality and harm of virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization-related businesses and their manifestations, fully alert to potential risks and hidden dangers, and enhance public awareness and identification capabilities for risk prevention.


  VI. Legal Responsibility


  (18) Engaging in illegal financial activities related to virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization in violation of this notice, as well as providing services for virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization-related businesses, shall be punished in accordance with relevant regulations. If it constitutes a crime, criminal liability shall be pursued according to the law. For domestic entities and individuals who knowingly or should have known that overseas entities illegally provided virtual currency or Real World Asset Tokenization-related services to domestic entities and still assisted them, relevant responsibilities shall be pursued according to the law. If it constitutes a crime, criminal liability shall be pursued according to the law.


  (19) If any unit or individual invests in virtual currencies, Real World Asset Tokens, and related financial products against public order and good customs, the relevant civil legal actions shall be invalid, and any resulting losses shall be borne by them. If there are suspicions of disrupting financial order and jeopardizing financial security, the relevant departments shall deal with them according to the law.


  This notice shall enter into force upon the date of its issuance. The People's Bank of China and ten other departments' "Notice on Further Preventing and Dealing with the Risks of Virtual Currency Trading Speculation" (Yinfa [2021] No. 237) is hereby repealed.


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