Market Rebound: How to Learn from a Pullback and Keep Navigating the Price Action?

By: blockbeats|2025/03/01 11:15:02
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Original Article Title: Conviction and Mental Capital in Crypto
Original Author: ElNachoCrypto, Crypto Researcher
Original Translation: ChatGPT

Editor's Note: The article explores the importance of conviction, mental capital, and a simplified strategy in cryptocurrency investment, emphasizing avoiding frequent trading and mistakes through self-reflection and a long-term perspective. The author provides 10 constructive suggestions, reminding readers to deepen their understanding through continuous research while maintaining emotional control and rational thinking to navigate market fluctuations.

The following is the original content (slightly reorganized for readability):

TL;DR

· Keep it simple; less is more. Having countless investments and activities filling your mind will lead to poor decisions.

· Why the rush to get rich? Bear in mind that money made quickly often disappears just as fast.

· Narrow your focus, guided by conviction and inner peace.

The Crypto World is Full of Distractions

Back in 2017, when I entered this space, I bought a batch of BTC at around $3500 cost basis. If I had fallen into a coma right after my last buy and woke up today, my financial situation would be quite nice.

I would have avoided countless round trips of trading, pain, and agony. But where's the fun in that? We must go through these to reach the other side, learning what we need to know to succeed. That's why we must accept and try to "enjoy" the hardship—seeing it as educational. Or as Ray Dalio put it: pain + reflection = progress.

Market Rebound: How to Learn from a Pullback and Keep Navigating the Price Action?

The reflection part is crucial. That's why I write these things. Because I feel I must process the pain and articulate the lessons.

But what am I here to say? From 2017 to 2025, I was involved in nearly every activity offered (except scamming, my conscience wouldn't allow it). Trading, flipping NFTs, airdrop mining, yield farming, early-stage investments, and so on.

Despite all these endless efforts to quickly amass wealth, simply DCA-ing BTC since 2017 would have outperformed everything, and I would have expended less mental energy and time. This simple, boring, slow but consistent behavior would have brought unimaginable gains. The lesson lies therein.

I recently saw someone ask Cobie, given all the "moth-like" downfall around meme coins, what they should do. I think his answer was brilliant:

@cobie: Don't buy into that scammy stuff, save your money. Buy Bitcoin and other extremely scarce valuable things. Set longer-term goals for personal wealth. Ignore everything else as it's irrelevant.

I'm a huge fan of Cobie. I think he's a rational voice among a very noisy bunch of idiots.

It's not just about telling you to dollar-cost average into BTC, but to say:

· I think we're so obsessed with getting rich quick that we end up engaging in activities that repeatedly make us lose money.

· We need a longer, much longer wealth accumulation time frame.

· Learn from experience (mine and others')—money often follows the principle of "easy come, easy go." @Trader_Dante said it best:

@Trader_Dante: One of the reasons I don't suffer from FOMO is that in my 21 years of trading, I have found that almost everyone in this trading arena can't hold onto the money they make. A person's brief success doesn't excite me. I can usually correctly guess they'll end up with nothing.

· The crypto world is indeed an unregulated casino. If people really get what they want from the market (win or lose), they'll find their poison here.

· Many of us are indeed chasing 10 rabbits, so much so that we never learn what we're good at, cultivate consistency, ending up worse off than when we started.

Narrow Your Focus With Conviction

Believe in something, but be extremely cautious about what you choose to believe in. There are more scammers here than in the Wild West. Maintain a high level of suspicion towards everyone and everything, after all, this is the crypto world.

That's why I think some of Murad's tweets have caused people to lose a lot of money. He's promoting his point but borrowing someone else's conviction is almost worthless because when your resolve is inevitably tested, you won't have the fortitude to see it through.

On one hand, I admire Murad's conviction (I believe his argument is flawed, but that's another topic), but I also believe this will bring many painful lessons to those who choose to follow him. Perhaps this will ultimately lead to a lot of learning.

You must form your own arguments and beliefs through months or years of research. There is no other way. Doing so will give you peace of mind, knowing that you have done your homework, and the market will take care of the rest.

I have developed very few long-term high-conviction investments. I don't need to share them here, but what's important is that when the market gives me a gift (like a random airdrop), the funds flow back into my conviction.

I don't want to hold more than 10 different tokens or invest in over 10 projects. It is very draining mentally. Each project requires a certain level of attention, and combining them significantly increases the likelihood of neglect and mistakes. Research shows that we all have limited cognitive resources, and each new task requires its own cognitive processing, whether conscious or unconscious.

I'm not providing any financial advice here, just some things to think about:

1. Declutter your mind and portfolio. Sell low-conviction assets and buy high-conviction assets.

2. Deepen your conviction in these assets through ongoing research.

3. Nevertheless, the crypto world is an extremely fluid place, and you must be too. Be ready to abandon anything at any time. I'm not saying sell something impulsively at the first sign of bad news, just be prepared to objectively review your arguments at any time.

4. Pay attention to people who hold the opposite view of your arguments; they may show you things you haven't considered. I always pay attention to those who are skeptical of Hyperliquid. I really want to know what they have to say and what I can learn from it.

5. Objectively monitor your (and others') emotions/reactions to challenges to firm beliefs. Ask yourself, "Why am I/they so excited about this? What does this reveal about them/me?" If needed, imagine yourself standing behind yourself as a passive observer—how does your behavior look?

6. Always question your own ability to remain objective. We are not always rational or logical beings.

7. Always keep some spare funds for those once-a-year/cycle enticing opportunities. I dare say, once you have a fairly substantial amount of funds ready to deploy, you can do almost nothing for most of the year; just wait for those opportunities. Also, consider that some people here only use USDC for yield/airdrop farming and have a relatively small exposure to spot crypto assets. If you're going all in, you better have a very good reason.

8. Inner peace comes from knowing that if the casino bankrupts you today, you'll be okay tomorrow. If you are overexposed, you will make bad decisions. Do not invest more in your portfolio than you can truly afford to lose—revisit this number frequently.

9. Do nothing and govern. It is a beautiful thing when you can truly sit back and relax your position. Most money is made by doing nothing, whether it's holding cash for high-value opportunities or actively positioning due to a significant, high-timeframe mean-reversion event.

10. Part of the reason you are satisfied with your argument is profit-taking. When you know you have made a huge profit, several times your initial capital, holding longer becomes much easier. People really overlook this. It's not easy, it takes practice, but force yourself to adopt this habit. I pasted these two screenshots from @Tradermayne and @Pentosh1 into my investment portfolio sheet:

@Tradermayne: I agree, but you don't have to wait until the end of the bull market to take profits. You should gradually cash out during this process.

The likelihood of accurately judging when the bull market will end is very low. Lock in profits as your portfolio reaches a milestone; it feels much better than hoping to cash out all at once near the market top.

It is almost impossible to sell all assets at the "top," especially since some assets peak at different times. Besides, your portfolio's historical all-time high value may not perfectly align with the actual market top and there will be some volatility.

Moreover, if the market persists longer than expected, taking profits along the way allows you to have funds on hand to reinvest when necessary.

Of course, if you don't change your lifestyle, this money won't fundamentally change your life.

Relax, don't rush. The opportunity will come again.

Original Post Link

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China's Central Bank and Eight Other Departments' Latest Regulatory Focus: Key Attention to RWA Tokenized Asset Risk


Foreword: Today, the People's Bank of China's website published the "Notice of the People's Bank of China, National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Ministry of Public Security, State Administration for Market Regulation, China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, China Securities Regulatory Commission, State Administration of Foreign Exchange on Further Preventing and Dealing with Risks Related to Virtual Currency and Others (Yinfa [2026] No. 42)", the latest regulatory requirements from the eight departments including the central bank, which are basically consistent with the regulatory requirements of recent years. The main focus of the regulation is on speculative activities such as virtual currency trading, exchanges, ICOs, overseas platform services, and this time, regulatory oversight of RWA has been added, explicitly prohibiting RWA tokenization, stablecoins (especially those pegged to the RMB). The following is the full text:


To the people's governments of all provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities directly under the Central Government, the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps:


  Recently, there have been speculative activities related to virtual currency and Real-World Assets (RWA) tokenization, disrupting the economic and financial order and jeopardizing the property security of the people. In order to further prevent and address the risks related to virtual currency and Real-World Assets tokenization, effectively safeguard national security and social stability, in accordance with the "Law of the People's Republic of China on the People's Bank of China," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Commercial Banks," "Securities Law of the People's Republic of China," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Securities Investment Funds," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Futures and Derivatives," "Cybersecurity Law of the People's Republic of China," "Regulations of the People's Republic of China on the Administration of Renminbi," "Regulations on Prevention and Disposal of Illegal Fundraising," "Regulations of the People's Republic of China on Foreign Exchange Administration," "Telecommunications Regulations of the People's Republic of China," and other provisions, after reaching consensus with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, and with the approval of the State Council, the relevant matters are notified as follows:


  I. Clarify the essential attributes of virtual currency, Real-World Assets tokenization, and related business activities


  (I) Virtual currency does not possess the legal status equivalent to fiat currency. Virtual currencies such as Bitcoin, Ether, Tether, etc., have the main characteristics of being issued by non-monetary authorities, using encryption technology and distributed ledger or similar technology, existing in digital form, etc. They do not have legal tender status, should not and cannot be circulated and used as currency in the market.


  The business activities related to virtual currency are classified as illegal financial activities. The exchange of fiat currency and virtual currency within the territory, exchange of virtual currencies, acting as a central counterparty in buying and selling virtual currencies, providing information intermediary and pricing services for virtual currency transactions, token issuance financing, and trading of virtual currency-related financial products, etc., fall under illegal financial activities, such as suspected illegal issuance of token vouchers, unauthorized public issuance of securities, illegal operation of securities and futures business, illegal fundraising, etc., are strictly prohibited across the board and resolutely banned in accordance with the law. Overseas entities and individuals are not allowed to provide virtual currency-related services to domestic entities in any form.


  A stablecoin pegged to a fiat currency indirectly fulfills some functions of the fiat currency in circulation. Without the consent of relevant authorities in accordance with the law and regulations, any domestic or foreign entity or individual is not allowed to issue a RMB-pegged stablecoin overseas.


(II)Tokenization of Real-World Assets refers to the use of encryption technology and distributed ledger or similar technologies to transform ownership rights, income rights, etc., of assets into tokens (tokens) or other interests or bond certificates with token (token) characteristics, and carry out issuance and trading activities.


  Engaging in the tokenization of real-world assets domestically, as well as providing related intermediary, information technology services, etc., which are suspected of illegal issuance of token vouchers, unauthorized public offering of securities, illegal operation of securities and futures business, illegal fundraising, and other illegal financial activities, shall be prohibited; except for relevant business activities carried out with the approval of the competent authorities in accordance with the law and regulations and relying on specific financial infrastructures. Overseas entities and individuals are not allowed to illegally provide services related to the tokenization of real-world assets to domestic entities in any form.


  II. Sound Work Mechanism


  (III) Inter-agency Coordination. The People's Bank of China, together with the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Public Security, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other departments, will improve the work mechanism, strengthen coordination with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, coordinate efforts, and overall guide regions to carry out risk prevention and disposal of virtual currency-related illegal financial activities.


  The China Securities Regulatory Commission, together with the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Public Security, the People's Bank of China, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other departments, will improve the work mechanism, strengthen coordination with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, coordinate efforts, and overall guide regions to carry out risk prevention and disposal of illegal financial activities related to the tokenization of real-world assets.


  (IV) Strengthening Local Implementation. The people's governments at the provincial level are overall responsible for the prevention and disposal of risks related to virtual currencies and the tokenization of real-world assets in their respective administrative regions. The specific leading department is the local financial regulatory department, with participation from branches and dispatched institutions of the State Council's financial regulatory department, telecommunications regulators, public security, market supervision, and other departments, in coordination with cyberspace departments, courts, and procuratorates, to improve the normalization of the work mechanism, effectively connect with the relevant work mechanisms of central departments, form a cooperative and coordinated working pattern between central and local governments, effectively prevent and properly handle risks related to virtual currencies and the tokenization of real-world assets, and maintain economic and financial order and social stability.


  III. Strengthened Risk Monitoring, Prevention, and Disposal


  (5) Enhanced Risk Monitoring. The People's Bank of China, China Securities Regulatory Commission, National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Ministry of Public Security, State Administration of Foreign Exchange, Cyberspace Administration of China, and other departments continue to improve monitoring techniques and system support, enhance cross-departmental data analysis and sharing, establish sound information sharing and cross-validation mechanisms, promptly grasp the risk situation of activities related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization. Local governments at all levels give full play to the role of local monitoring and early warning mechanisms. Local financial regulatory authorities, together with branches and agencies of the State Council's financial regulatory authorities, as well as departments of cyberspace and public security, ensure effective connection between online monitoring, offline investigation, and fund tracking, efficiently and accurately identify activities related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization, promptly share risk information, improve early warning information dissemination, verification, and rapid response mechanisms.


  (6) Strengthened Oversight of Financial Institutions, Intermediaries, and Technology Service Providers. Financial institutions (including non-bank payment institutions) are prohibited from providing account opening, fund transfer, and clearing services for virtual currency-related business activities, issuing and selling financial products related to virtual currency, including virtual currency and related financial products in the scope of collateral, conducting insurance business related to virtual currency, or including virtual currency in the scope of insurance liability. Financial institutions (including non-bank payment institutions) are prohibited from providing custody, clearing, and settlement services for unauthorized real-world asset tokenization-related business and related financial products. Relevant intermediary institutions and information technology service providers are prohibited from providing intermediary, technical, or other services for unauthorized real-world asset tokenization-related businesses and related financial products.


  (7) Enhanced Management of Internet Information Content and Access. Internet enterprises are prohibited from providing online business venues, commercial displays, marketing, advertising, or paid traffic diversion services for virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization-related business activities. Upon discovering clues of illegal activities, they should promptly report to relevant departments and provide technical support and assistance for related investigations and inquiries. Based on the clues transferred by the financial regulatory authorities, the cyberspace administration, telecommunications authorities, and public security departments should promptly close and deal with websites, mobile applications (including mini-programs), and public accounts engaged in virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization-related business activities in accordance with the law.


  (8) Strengthened Entity Registration and Advertisement Management. Market supervision departments strengthen entity registration and management, and enterprise and individual business registrations must not contain terms such as "virtual currency," "virtual asset," "cryptocurrency," "crypto asset," "stablecoin," "real-world asset tokenization," or "RWA" in their names or business scopes. Market supervision departments, together with financial regulatory authorities, legally enhance the supervision of advertisements related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization, promptly investigating and handling relevant illegal advertisements.


  (IX) Continued Rectification of Virtual Currency Mining Activities. The National Development and Reform Commission, together with relevant departments, strictly controls virtual currency mining activities, continuously promotes the rectification of virtual currency mining activities. The people's governments of various provinces take overall responsibility for the rectification of "mining" within their respective administrative regions. In accordance with the requirements of the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments in the "Notice on the Rectification of Virtual Currency Mining Activities" (NDRC Energy-saving Building [2021] No. 1283) and the provisions of the "Guidance Catalog for Industrial Structure Adjustment (2024 Edition)," a comprehensive review, investigation, and closure of existing virtual currency mining projects are conducted, new mining projects are strictly prohibited, and mining machine production enterprises are strictly prohibited from providing mining machine sales and other services within the country.


  (X) Severe Crackdown on Related Illegal Financial Activities. Upon discovering clues to illegal financial activities related to virtual currency and the tokenization of real-world assets, local financial regulatory authorities, branches of the State Council's financial regulatory authorities, and other relevant departments promptly investigate, determine, and properly handle the issues in accordance with the law, and seriously hold the relevant entities and individuals legally responsible. Those suspected of crimes are transferred to the judicial authorities for processing according to the law.


 (XI) Severe Crackdown on Related Illegal and Criminal Activities. The Ministry of Public Security, the People's Bank of China, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, as well as judicial and procuratorial organs, in accordance with their respective responsibilities, rigorously crack down on illegal and criminal activities related to virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, such as fraud, money laundering, illegal business operations, pyramid schemes, illegal fundraising, and other illegal and criminal activities carried out under the guise of virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, etc.


  (XII) Strengthen Industry Self-discipline. Relevant industry associations should enhance membership management and policy advocacy, based on their own responsibilities, advocate and urge member units to resist illegal financial activities related to virtual currency and the tokenization of real-world assets. Member units that violate regulatory policies and industry self-discipline rules are to be disciplined in accordance with relevant self-regulatory management regulations. By leveraging various industry infrastructure, conduct risk monitoring related to virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, and promptly transfer issue clues to relevant departments.


  IV. Strict Supervision of Domestic Entities Engaging in Overseas Business Activities


(XIII) Without the approval of relevant departments in accordance with the law and regulations, domestic entities and foreign entities controlled by them may not issue virtual currency overseas.


  (XIV) Domestic entities engaging directly or indirectly in overseas external debt-based tokenization of real-world assets, or conducting asset securitization activities abroad based on domestic ownership rights, income rights, etc. (hereinafter referred to as domestic equity), should be strictly regulated in accordance with the principles of "same business, same risk, same rules." The National Development and Reform Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other relevant departments regulate it according to their respective responsibilities. For other forms of overseas real-world asset tokenization activities based on domestic equity by domestic entities, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, together with relevant departments, supervise according to their division of responsibilities. Without the consent and filing of relevant departments, no unit or individual may engage in the above-mentioned business.


  (15) Overseas subsidiaries and branches of domestic financial institutions providing Real World Asset Tokenization-related services overseas shall do so legally and prudently. They shall have professional personnel and systems in place to effectively mitigate business risks, strictly implement customer onboarding, suitability management, anti-money laundering requirements, and incorporate them into the domestic financial institutions' compliance and risk management system. Intermediaries and information technology service providers offering Real World Asset Tokenization services abroad based on domestic equity or conducting Real World Asset Tokenization business in the form of overseas debt for domestic entities directly or indirectly venturing abroad must strictly comply with relevant laws and regulations. They should establish and improve relevant compliance and internal control systems in accordance with relevant normative requirements, strengthen business and risk control, and report the business developments to the relevant regulatory authorities for approval or filing.


  V. Strengthen Organizational Implementation


  (16) Strengthen organizational leadership and overall coordination. All departments and regions should attach great importance to the prevention of risks related to virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization, strengthen organizational leadership, clarify work responsibilities, form a long-term effective working mechanism with centralized coordination, local implementation, and shared responsibilities, maintain high pressure, dynamically monitor risks, effectively prevent and mitigate risks in an orderly and efficient manner, legally protect the property security of the people, and make every effort to maintain economic and financial order and social stability.


  (17) Widely carry out publicity and education. All departments, regions, and industry associations should make full use of various media and other communication channels to disseminate information through legal and policy interpretation, analysis of typical cases, and education on investment risks, etc. They should promote the illegality and harm of virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization-related businesses and their manifestations, fully alert to potential risks and hidden dangers, and enhance public awareness and identification capabilities for risk prevention.


  VI. Legal Responsibility


  (18) Engaging in illegal financial activities related to virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization in violation of this notice, as well as providing services for virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization-related businesses, shall be punished in accordance with relevant regulations. If it constitutes a crime, criminal liability shall be pursued according to the law. For domestic entities and individuals who knowingly or should have known that overseas entities illegally provided virtual currency or Real World Asset Tokenization-related services to domestic entities and still assisted them, relevant responsibilities shall be pursued according to the law. If it constitutes a crime, criminal liability shall be pursued according to the law.


  (19) If any unit or individual invests in virtual currencies, Real World Asset Tokens, and related financial products against public order and good customs, the relevant civil legal actions shall be invalid, and any resulting losses shall be borne by them. If there are suspicions of disrupting financial order and jeopardizing financial security, the relevant departments shall deal with them according to the law.


  This notice shall enter into force upon the date of its issuance. The People's Bank of China and ten other departments' "Notice on Further Preventing and Dealing with the Risks of Virtual Currency Trading Speculation" (Yinfa [2021] No. 237) is hereby repealed.


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