Probability of Receiving Stablecoins in Crisis Countries Rises by 1.8 Percentage Points
The probability of receiving dollar-denominated stablecoins in wallets related to crisis countries increased by 1.8 percentage points during crisis weeks. According to research from the New York Federal Reserve, it was analyzed that as financial stress increases, stablecoins can complicate the implementation of capital controls and fixed exchange rate policies. The study analyzed nine crisis events that occurred between 2021 and 2025, utilizing Ethereum Name Service registration information and transactions of 19 dollar-denominated stablecoins on the ERC-20 network. Wallets in crisis countries received 0.127 log points more dollar stablecoins in the same week, and other analyses indicated that the probability of receiving stablecoins during crisis weeks increased by 1.9 percentage points, while the probability of sending them rose by 1.3 percentage points two weeks later. However, this figure does not reflect the overall adoption rate of stablecoins, and the researchers did not view stablecoins as a direct causal factor in triggering crises. The policy issue at hand is capital control, as stablecoins provide a pathway for transferring dollar value through blockchain wallets, potentially increasing control costs and oversight. The Federal Reserve explained that while payment stablecoins can enhance the efficiency of cross-border payments, their large-scale adoption could impact central bank reserve management and monetary policy.
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