Serenity: Celestial's Independent Listing Valuation May Reach $6 Billion to $10 Billion

On August 31, Serenity stated that if Celestial (which has been acquired by Marvell) were to list as an independent company in the United States, its valuation could reach between $6 billion and $10 billion. Celestial is expected to generate revenue of $500 million in 2028, rising to $1 billion in 2029, and is a core participant in the CPO (Co-Packaged Optics) projects of large-scale cloud vendors. In contrast, Celestial's revenue in the second quarter of 2026 was nearly zero, and Marvell indicated that its revenue and profit contributions post-acquisition were "not significant," with a quarterly loss of approximately $12.5 million and an annualized loss of about $50 million. Serenity believes that if Celestial is evaluated solely based on its quarterly P/S and losses, it may be viewed as a "worthless meme stock"; however, considering the qualification certification cycle and the potential opportunities in the large-scale cloud vendor CPO projects in 2028, its reasonable valuation should be between $6 billion and $10 billion. Serenity pointed out that assessing hard tech companies still in the early stages of customer certification and commercialization reflects the core divergence between the U.S. and European markets and cultures, and the future revenue potential and progress in customer certification as they enter large-scale commercialization are far more worthy of attention than current quarterly revenues and losses.

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