Solana's Big 4 DEX Battle: Raydium, Jupiter, Orca, and Meteora - Who Will Come Out on Top?

By: blockbeats|2025/02/19 14:30:03
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Original Title: Introduction: Solana's Evolving DeFi Landscape
Original Author: vik0nchain, Researcher at Cyber Capital
Original Translation: Luffy, Foresight News

From the fourth quarter of 2024 to the beginning of 2025, Solana's DeFi ecosystem's competitive landscape has gradually emerged, mainly reflected in the rise of aggregators, user experience (UX) abstraction, major integrations, and evolving tokenomics standards. Although these changes were not initially apparent, recent data has clearly shown their impact, particularly in the redistribution of liquidity, fee generation, and shifts in market share.

This analysis delves into the liquidity positioning of Solana-based major decentralized exchanges (DEXes) — Raydium, Jupiter, Orca, and Meteora, focusing on discussing their advantages, disadvantages, and potential investment impacts compared to existing and emerging competitors.

Investment Analysis Framework

Raydium (RAY) Bullish Outlook: Deep Liquidity and Buyback Advantage

· Liquidity and Trading Volume Dominance: Raydium remains the most liquid and frequently used decentralized exchange in the Solana ecosystem. Over 55% of trades routed through Jupiter settle on Raydium. Additionally, Raydium holds a market-leading position in all decentralized exchanges across blockchains, sometimes even surpassing Uniswap, with its fully diluted valuation (FDV) and market cap being only about a third of Uniswap's.

· Raydium/Uniswap Fully Diluted Valuation Ratio: $28.72 billion / $91.02 billion = 31.5%

· Raydium/Uniswap Market Cap Ratio: $15.06 billion / $54.66 billion = 27.5%

· Pump.fun Integration: Key partnerships, including the integration with Pump.fun, have boosted trading volume and protocol stickiness due to all new Meme pools migrating to Raydium.

· Token Buyback: Raydium's 12% fee buyback plan has repurchased over 10% of the total token supply, significantly alleviating selling pressure. It is noteworthy that Raydium's buyback amount far exceeds that held by centralized exchanges.

Solana's Big 4 DEX Battle: Raydium, Jupiter, Orca, and Meteora - Who Will Come Out on Top?

Jupiter (JUP) Bullish Outlook: Market-Leading Aggregator

· Liquidity Aggregation Advantage: Jupiter, as a leading aggregator on Solana, plays a key role.

· Moonshot Acquisition: The acquisition of Moonshot enables Jupiter to integrate on/off-ramps within its decentralized exchange, enhancing competitiveness by simplifying the user experience.

· Unlocking Pressure: Due to token unlocking, Jupiter faces a 127% supply expansion, bringing mid-term inflation risk. Although a buyback mechanism has been recently announced, the internally estimated annual buyback rate is 2.4%, providing some support to the token economy but having limited impact in the competition with Raydium.

· Business Model: As aggregator fees are charged additionally on top of underlying protocol fees, in a low-fee environment, the aggregator model faces challenges.

· Lack of Competitors: Being the pioneering aggregator on Solana, Jupiter lacks strong competitors.

Meteora Bullish Outlook: Emerging Liquidity Aggregator

· Aggregated Liquidity Efficiency: Unlike standalone decentralized exchanges, liquidity aggregators like Meteora inherently have lower downside risk and more stable capital efficiency.

· Token Issuance Catalyst: A successful token launch for Meteora could shift liquidity preferences, providing long-term momentum for its market positioning. Unlike industry LP leader Kamino, MET points are not publicly displayed on the user interface. Furthermore, since the announcement of the MET points system over a year ago, there has been no official statement regarding airdrops. While liquidity providers can earn higher yields elsewhere in the ecosystem (such as lulo.fi), market positioning and airdrop expectations may be the primary drivers for liquidity providers.

· Total Value Locked (TVL) Retention: With the Pengu airdrop and significant events like the Trump and Melania-related Memecoin launch, Meteora has made strides. Although during the Memecoin launch, the trading volume / Total Value Locked (Vol/TVL) ratio of many pairs rose due to temporary demand, Meteora's TVL continued to grow post-event, demonstrating good retention.

· Integration Development: Virtuals migrated to Solana in the first quarter of 2024 and announced integration with the Meteora liquidity pool.

Orca Bleak Outlook: Insufficient Liquidity Retention

· Insufficient Liquidity Depth: Despite high efficiency, Orca's pool size is significantly smaller than Raydium's, resulting in higher slippage for large trades.

· Market Positioning Issue: Jupiter's routing mechanism prioritizes exchanges with deeper liquidity, making emerging low-liquidity decentralized exchanges and liquidity pools unattractive. The emergence of Meteora as a liquidity aggregator further limits the competitive survival of non-leading decentralized exchanges in the routing framework, as routing only occurs when the slippage cost is lower than Meteora's fee premium, a situation that is very rare beyond the surge in market demand.

· Limited Liquidity Provider Incentives: Orca lacks a robust liquidity mining strategy, leading to a lower long-term liquidity provider retention rate.

· Inefficient Capital Allocation: Unlike Meteora, Orca has not yet implemented automated yield optimization, requiring manual LP management, resulting in a more cumbersome user experience.

· Unpromising Liquidity Trend: The upcoming Meteora token launch may divert liquidity providers completely from Orca, making its situation even more challenging.

· Insufficient Integration: Failure to reach a partnership with Pump.fun at the beginning of 2024 followed by a recent missed opportunity with Virtuals highlights its competitive disadvantage in acquiring orders from emerging retail-driven applications. Without upcoming catalysts to reverse this trend, the liquidity migration may continue. These factors have prevented Orca from retaining the additional user volume gained during network demand peaks.

Key Catalysts and Risks

Critical Catalysts to Watch

· RAY Buyback vs. Centralized Exchange Holdings Comparison: RAY's buyback rate now exceeds the total RAY held by centralized exchanges, reinforcing the token's scarcity.

· Total Locked Value Growth Trend: The continued dominance of Raydium, Jupiter, and Meteora indicates the sustainability of long-term liquidity. In high-pressure market conditions, the performance of emerging protocols deserves attention and should not be overlooked.

· Partnership Dynamics: Just as Pumpfun's integration brought significant liquidity to Raydium, Meteora's integration with Virtuals could have a similar effect. Given the impact of such partnerships on liquidity and total value locked, collaborations with lesser-known players are closely watched.

· Meteora's Token Issuance: This event could mark a turning point in the decentralized exchange liquidity distribution on Solana.

· Fee-to-Market Cap Ratio: Orca demonstrated high efficiency during a month of strong demand, but its retention of liquidity fell short, hindering long-term competitiveness. On the other hand, JUP faced the opposite situation due to constraints in its business model. Compared to the latest "hot project" Hyperliquid, Raydium generated ten times the fee with an eighth of the fully diluted valuation.

Risks

· JUP Inflationary Pressure: Despite Jupiter's aggregator position being solid, its large token supply could create short-term price pressure. Orca Market Share Erosion: If the trend of liquidity providers migrating continues, Orca may face ongoing liquidity drain. Meteora Airdrop and Tokenomics Implementation Risk: While early total value locked growth has been strong, its tokenomics and incentive structure remain untested.

Conclusion and Investment Outlook

Solana's decentralized exchange landscape is moving towards higher efficiency and deeper liquidity concentration. Raydium's outstanding liquidity positioning, active buyback mechanism, and market leadership make it a decentralized exchange with strong investment confidence. Jupiter's aggregator role remains critical and provides a competitive barrier, but token supply dilution poses a short-term challenge. Orca was once a competitive player, but faces serious challenges in liquidity retention and capital efficiency, becoming an increasingly fragile asset, indicating the dilemma of missing key integrations and struggling to compete head-on with established players. Meteora is poised to rise upon the successful launch of its upcoming token.

Based on our current theory, investment positions in decentralized exchanges should focus on the leading decentralized exchanges, decentralized exchange aggregators, and liquidity aggregators within a given ecosystem, while holding a small position in emerging participants that meet catalyst criteria.

Original Article Link

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China's Central Bank and Eight Other Departments' Latest Regulatory Focus: Key Attention to RWA Tokenized Asset Risk


Foreword: Today, the People's Bank of China's website published the "Notice of the People's Bank of China, National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Ministry of Public Security, State Administration for Market Regulation, China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, China Securities Regulatory Commission, State Administration of Foreign Exchange on Further Preventing and Dealing with Risks Related to Virtual Currency and Others (Yinfa [2026] No. 42)", the latest regulatory requirements from the eight departments including the central bank, which are basically consistent with the regulatory requirements of recent years. The main focus of the regulation is on speculative activities such as virtual currency trading, exchanges, ICOs, overseas platform services, and this time, regulatory oversight of RWA has been added, explicitly prohibiting RWA tokenization, stablecoins (especially those pegged to the RMB). The following is the full text:


To the people's governments of all provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities directly under the Central Government, the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps:


  Recently, there have been speculative activities related to virtual currency and Real-World Assets (RWA) tokenization, disrupting the economic and financial order and jeopardizing the property security of the people. In order to further prevent and address the risks related to virtual currency and Real-World Assets tokenization, effectively safeguard national security and social stability, in accordance with the "Law of the People's Republic of China on the People's Bank of China," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Commercial Banks," "Securities Law of the People's Republic of China," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Securities Investment Funds," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Futures and Derivatives," "Cybersecurity Law of the People's Republic of China," "Regulations of the People's Republic of China on the Administration of Renminbi," "Regulations on Prevention and Disposal of Illegal Fundraising," "Regulations of the People's Republic of China on Foreign Exchange Administration," "Telecommunications Regulations of the People's Republic of China," and other provisions, after reaching consensus with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, and with the approval of the State Council, the relevant matters are notified as follows:


  I. Clarify the essential attributes of virtual currency, Real-World Assets tokenization, and related business activities


  (I) Virtual currency does not possess the legal status equivalent to fiat currency. Virtual currencies such as Bitcoin, Ether, Tether, etc., have the main characteristics of being issued by non-monetary authorities, using encryption technology and distributed ledger or similar technology, existing in digital form, etc. They do not have legal tender status, should not and cannot be circulated and used as currency in the market.


  The business activities related to virtual currency are classified as illegal financial activities. The exchange of fiat currency and virtual currency within the territory, exchange of virtual currencies, acting as a central counterparty in buying and selling virtual currencies, providing information intermediary and pricing services for virtual currency transactions, token issuance financing, and trading of virtual currency-related financial products, etc., fall under illegal financial activities, such as suspected illegal issuance of token vouchers, unauthorized public issuance of securities, illegal operation of securities and futures business, illegal fundraising, etc., are strictly prohibited across the board and resolutely banned in accordance with the law. Overseas entities and individuals are not allowed to provide virtual currency-related services to domestic entities in any form.


  A stablecoin pegged to a fiat currency indirectly fulfills some functions of the fiat currency in circulation. Without the consent of relevant authorities in accordance with the law and regulations, any domestic or foreign entity or individual is not allowed to issue a RMB-pegged stablecoin overseas.


(II)Tokenization of Real-World Assets refers to the use of encryption technology and distributed ledger or similar technologies to transform ownership rights, income rights, etc., of assets into tokens (tokens) or other interests or bond certificates with token (token) characteristics, and carry out issuance and trading activities.


  Engaging in the tokenization of real-world assets domestically, as well as providing related intermediary, information technology services, etc., which are suspected of illegal issuance of token vouchers, unauthorized public offering of securities, illegal operation of securities and futures business, illegal fundraising, and other illegal financial activities, shall be prohibited; except for relevant business activities carried out with the approval of the competent authorities in accordance with the law and regulations and relying on specific financial infrastructures. Overseas entities and individuals are not allowed to illegally provide services related to the tokenization of real-world assets to domestic entities in any form.


  II. Sound Work Mechanism


  (III) Inter-agency Coordination. The People's Bank of China, together with the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Public Security, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other departments, will improve the work mechanism, strengthen coordination with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, coordinate efforts, and overall guide regions to carry out risk prevention and disposal of virtual currency-related illegal financial activities.


  The China Securities Regulatory Commission, together with the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Public Security, the People's Bank of China, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other departments, will improve the work mechanism, strengthen coordination with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, coordinate efforts, and overall guide regions to carry out risk prevention and disposal of illegal financial activities related to the tokenization of real-world assets.


  (IV) Strengthening Local Implementation. The people's governments at the provincial level are overall responsible for the prevention and disposal of risks related to virtual currencies and the tokenization of real-world assets in their respective administrative regions. The specific leading department is the local financial regulatory department, with participation from branches and dispatched institutions of the State Council's financial regulatory department, telecommunications regulators, public security, market supervision, and other departments, in coordination with cyberspace departments, courts, and procuratorates, to improve the normalization of the work mechanism, effectively connect with the relevant work mechanisms of central departments, form a cooperative and coordinated working pattern between central and local governments, effectively prevent and properly handle risks related to virtual currencies and the tokenization of real-world assets, and maintain economic and financial order and social stability.


  III. Strengthened Risk Monitoring, Prevention, and Disposal


  (5) Enhanced Risk Monitoring. The People's Bank of China, China Securities Regulatory Commission, National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Ministry of Public Security, State Administration of Foreign Exchange, Cyberspace Administration of China, and other departments continue to improve monitoring techniques and system support, enhance cross-departmental data analysis and sharing, establish sound information sharing and cross-validation mechanisms, promptly grasp the risk situation of activities related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization. Local governments at all levels give full play to the role of local monitoring and early warning mechanisms. Local financial regulatory authorities, together with branches and agencies of the State Council's financial regulatory authorities, as well as departments of cyberspace and public security, ensure effective connection between online monitoring, offline investigation, and fund tracking, efficiently and accurately identify activities related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization, promptly share risk information, improve early warning information dissemination, verification, and rapid response mechanisms.


  (6) Strengthened Oversight of Financial Institutions, Intermediaries, and Technology Service Providers. Financial institutions (including non-bank payment institutions) are prohibited from providing account opening, fund transfer, and clearing services for virtual currency-related business activities, issuing and selling financial products related to virtual currency, including virtual currency and related financial products in the scope of collateral, conducting insurance business related to virtual currency, or including virtual currency in the scope of insurance liability. Financial institutions (including non-bank payment institutions) are prohibited from providing custody, clearing, and settlement services for unauthorized real-world asset tokenization-related business and related financial products. Relevant intermediary institutions and information technology service providers are prohibited from providing intermediary, technical, or other services for unauthorized real-world asset tokenization-related businesses and related financial products.


  (7) Enhanced Management of Internet Information Content and Access. Internet enterprises are prohibited from providing online business venues, commercial displays, marketing, advertising, or paid traffic diversion services for virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization-related business activities. Upon discovering clues of illegal activities, they should promptly report to relevant departments and provide technical support and assistance for related investigations and inquiries. Based on the clues transferred by the financial regulatory authorities, the cyberspace administration, telecommunications authorities, and public security departments should promptly close and deal with websites, mobile applications (including mini-programs), and public accounts engaged in virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization-related business activities in accordance with the law.


  (8) Strengthened Entity Registration and Advertisement Management. Market supervision departments strengthen entity registration and management, and enterprise and individual business registrations must not contain terms such as "virtual currency," "virtual asset," "cryptocurrency," "crypto asset," "stablecoin," "real-world asset tokenization," or "RWA" in their names or business scopes. Market supervision departments, together with financial regulatory authorities, legally enhance the supervision of advertisements related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization, promptly investigating and handling relevant illegal advertisements.


  (IX) Continued Rectification of Virtual Currency Mining Activities. The National Development and Reform Commission, together with relevant departments, strictly controls virtual currency mining activities, continuously promotes the rectification of virtual currency mining activities. The people's governments of various provinces take overall responsibility for the rectification of "mining" within their respective administrative regions. In accordance with the requirements of the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments in the "Notice on the Rectification of Virtual Currency Mining Activities" (NDRC Energy-saving Building [2021] No. 1283) and the provisions of the "Guidance Catalog for Industrial Structure Adjustment (2024 Edition)," a comprehensive review, investigation, and closure of existing virtual currency mining projects are conducted, new mining projects are strictly prohibited, and mining machine production enterprises are strictly prohibited from providing mining machine sales and other services within the country.


  (X) Severe Crackdown on Related Illegal Financial Activities. Upon discovering clues to illegal financial activities related to virtual currency and the tokenization of real-world assets, local financial regulatory authorities, branches of the State Council's financial regulatory authorities, and other relevant departments promptly investigate, determine, and properly handle the issues in accordance with the law, and seriously hold the relevant entities and individuals legally responsible. Those suspected of crimes are transferred to the judicial authorities for processing according to the law.


 (XI) Severe Crackdown on Related Illegal and Criminal Activities. The Ministry of Public Security, the People's Bank of China, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, as well as judicial and procuratorial organs, in accordance with their respective responsibilities, rigorously crack down on illegal and criminal activities related to virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, such as fraud, money laundering, illegal business operations, pyramid schemes, illegal fundraising, and other illegal and criminal activities carried out under the guise of virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, etc.


  (XII) Strengthen Industry Self-discipline. Relevant industry associations should enhance membership management and policy advocacy, based on their own responsibilities, advocate and urge member units to resist illegal financial activities related to virtual currency and the tokenization of real-world assets. Member units that violate regulatory policies and industry self-discipline rules are to be disciplined in accordance with relevant self-regulatory management regulations. By leveraging various industry infrastructure, conduct risk monitoring related to virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, and promptly transfer issue clues to relevant departments.


  IV. Strict Supervision of Domestic Entities Engaging in Overseas Business Activities


(XIII) Without the approval of relevant departments in accordance with the law and regulations, domestic entities and foreign entities controlled by them may not issue virtual currency overseas.


  (XIV) Domestic entities engaging directly or indirectly in overseas external debt-based tokenization of real-world assets, or conducting asset securitization activities abroad based on domestic ownership rights, income rights, etc. (hereinafter referred to as domestic equity), should be strictly regulated in accordance with the principles of "same business, same risk, same rules." The National Development and Reform Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other relevant departments regulate it according to their respective responsibilities. For other forms of overseas real-world asset tokenization activities based on domestic equity by domestic entities, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, together with relevant departments, supervise according to their division of responsibilities. Without the consent and filing of relevant departments, no unit or individual may engage in the above-mentioned business.


  (15) Overseas subsidiaries and branches of domestic financial institutions providing Real World Asset Tokenization-related services overseas shall do so legally and prudently. They shall have professional personnel and systems in place to effectively mitigate business risks, strictly implement customer onboarding, suitability management, anti-money laundering requirements, and incorporate them into the domestic financial institutions' compliance and risk management system. Intermediaries and information technology service providers offering Real World Asset Tokenization services abroad based on domestic equity or conducting Real World Asset Tokenization business in the form of overseas debt for domestic entities directly or indirectly venturing abroad must strictly comply with relevant laws and regulations. They should establish and improve relevant compliance and internal control systems in accordance with relevant normative requirements, strengthen business and risk control, and report the business developments to the relevant regulatory authorities for approval or filing.


  V. Strengthen Organizational Implementation


  (16) Strengthen organizational leadership and overall coordination. All departments and regions should attach great importance to the prevention of risks related to virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization, strengthen organizational leadership, clarify work responsibilities, form a long-term effective working mechanism with centralized coordination, local implementation, and shared responsibilities, maintain high pressure, dynamically monitor risks, effectively prevent and mitigate risks in an orderly and efficient manner, legally protect the property security of the people, and make every effort to maintain economic and financial order and social stability.


  (17) Widely carry out publicity and education. All departments, regions, and industry associations should make full use of various media and other communication channels to disseminate information through legal and policy interpretation, analysis of typical cases, and education on investment risks, etc. They should promote the illegality and harm of virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization-related businesses and their manifestations, fully alert to potential risks and hidden dangers, and enhance public awareness and identification capabilities for risk prevention.


  VI. Legal Responsibility


  (18) Engaging in illegal financial activities related to virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization in violation of this notice, as well as providing services for virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization-related businesses, shall be punished in accordance with relevant regulations. If it constitutes a crime, criminal liability shall be pursued according to the law. For domestic entities and individuals who knowingly or should have known that overseas entities illegally provided virtual currency or Real World Asset Tokenization-related services to domestic entities and still assisted them, relevant responsibilities shall be pursued according to the law. If it constitutes a crime, criminal liability shall be pursued according to the law.


  (19) If any unit or individual invests in virtual currencies, Real World Asset Tokens, and related financial products against public order and good customs, the relevant civil legal actions shall be invalid, and any resulting losses shall be borne by them. If there are suspicions of disrupting financial order and jeopardizing financial security, the relevant departments shall deal with them according to the law.


  This notice shall enter into force upon the date of its issuance. The People's Bank of China and ten other departments' "Notice on Further Preventing and Dealing with the Risks of Virtual Currency Trading Speculation" (Yinfa [2021] No. 237) is hereby repealed.


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