Crypto: The Clarity Act has only a 13% chance of being adopted

The Clarity Act has never been closer to a vote. The US Senate is set to decide on September 15. However, it is navigating unprecedented turbulence. Indeed, prediction markets are giving little chance of adoption for this bill regulating crypto assets. On Polymarket, the probability of success has dropped from 82% in February to just 13% on August 3, 2026. This is cause for concern!

In brief

• Polymarket gives only a 13% chance for the Clarity Act to be adopted in 2026.
• Kalshi, on the other hand, predicts a 91% chance of a Senate vote before October 1.
• The US Senate will test the text on September 15, with a threshold of 60 votes.
• Three disagreements are still blocking a crypto compromise.
• The SEC and CFTC are already moving forward with crypto regulation without waiting for Congress.

Prediction markets are radically revising their expectations

On Kalshi, traders estimate a 91% probability of a Senate vote before October 1. This market has already generated over $1.25 million in volume. The broadest contract regarding the complete adoption of crypto regulation exceeds even $6.8 million traded.

Polymarket tells a completely different story. On this prediction platform, the bet directly concerns the following question: will H.R. 3633 (more commonly known as the Clarity Act) become law in 2026? Certainly, over $11.5 million has been wagered on this contract. Nevertheless, the implied probability has collapsed to 13%. This is a spectacular drop from the 82% chance that traders still anticipated last February!

For crypto investors, this divergence between Kalshi and Polymarket reflects:

• a confidence in the senators' ability to vote;
• a deep doubt about their ability to turn this vote into effective law.

A high-stakes crypto vote in the US Senate

The Clarity Act (H.R. 3633) aims to create a clear federal framework for the US crypto market. It was passed by the House of Representatives in July 2025 by a vote of 294 to 134. The Senate vote also constitutes the last major obstacle, with deadlines repeatedly pushed back.

In concrete terms, this bill would grant the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) exclusive authority over spot markets for digital commodities. For its part, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) would retain oversight of certain securities offerings as well as the activities of crypto exchanges.

Important clarification: September 15, 2026, will primarily be a closure vote on the "motion to proceed". This is a procedure to authorize the start of debate on the bill. Supporters of the CLARITY Act must gather 60 favorable votes. Republicans already control 53 seats. Thus, at least 7 Democrats will need to join them to overcome the closure.

In this context, opinions within the crypto community are divided. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong has stated he is "rather optimistic" about surpassing the 60 votes. In an interview with CNBC, he said:

Both sides have gotten about 90% of what they wanted.

According to information reported by American Banker, analyst Ian Katz of Capital Alpha Partners has revised his estimate downwards. It has dropped from around 40% to 25%. The same goes for Galaxy Digital, which is more pessimistic with an estimate of only 10% in August.

Three blockages now threaten US crypto regulation

The first concerns ethics. Several Democrats, including Kirsten Gillibrand, are demanding a binding ban on officials holding crypto assets. Without this clause, they refuse to support the text.

The second point of contention involves stablecoins and traditional banks. The latter refuse any compromise on rewards. This conflict directly pits crypto innovation against the interests of the traditional banking sector.

The third issue concerns DeFi and non-custodial software developers. The protections to be granted to these actors indeed divide legislators. Some fear creating regulatory loopholes.

Good to know: while the US Senate is mired in partisan disputes, the SEC and CFTC are pushing their own crypto reforms. In contrast, these regulators prefer to build a legal framework through regulatory means rather than legislative ones.

In any case, the countdown has begun. The future of the Clarity Act will be decided in a few crucial weeks with direct consequences for the entire US and global crypto ecosystem. A case to follow closely!