Cyclogenesis in the AMBA: Yellow alert issued for heavy storms, gusts, and the arrival of polar cold air

The National Meteorological Service has issued a yellow alert for the Metropolitan Area of Buenos Aires due to the arrival of a cyclogenesis that will cause storms, intense gusts, and a sudden change in weather. The phenomenon will develop this Thursday and will lead to a mass of polar air that will keep the cold for much of the weekend and the beginning of next week.

According to the official forecast, the heaviest rains and storms will concentrate on Thursday, with precipitation probabilities between 40% and 70% and gusts that could reach between 60 and 69 kilometers per hour. The day will start with fog and relatively stable conditions, but instability will increase towards noon with the advance of a cold front.

As the system moves over the region, the wind will shift to the south and favor the influx of cold air. Although the maximum temperature will hover around 14°C, by night the values will drop to 9°C, marking the beginning of a period with fully winter conditions.

Cyclogenesis is an atmospheric process through which a low-pressure system forms and intensifies. While it does not represent a storm by itself, it creates the conditions for persistent rains, storms, and stronger wind gusts to develop.

According to various meteorological models, the system will be located over the east of the country and will have a direct influence on the AMBA, the northern province of Buenos Aires, and part of the Litoral, leading specialists to consider Thursday as the day with the most meteorological activity of the week.

Once the low-pressure system moves eastward, a mass of polar air will begin to dominate the weather conditions. The change will be felt quickly and will lead to several days with very low temperatures.

For Friday, minimum temperatures close to 5°C are expected in urban areas, with even lower readings in suburban and rural areas. Saturday will continue with stable weather, although with westerly winds that will increase the wind chill.

Sunday is expected to be the coldest day of the period, with minimums around 4°C and maximums barely exceeding 12°C or 13°C. The extended forecast also indicates that the cold air will continue into the beginning of next week, with minimums close to 3°C on Monday and 4°C on Tuesday.

The arrival of this phenomenon comes just days after a historic meteorological episode for the City of Buenos Aires. Last Friday, 113 millimeters of rain fell, the highest record for a July month since systematic measurements began in 1906.

Although the event expected for this Thursday is not anticipated to reach those accumulations, meteorologists are closely monitoring its evolution because it combines rains, storms, strong gusts, and a marked thermal drop, a combination that can generate complications in various sectors of the AMBA.

In addition to the current alert for the Metropolitan Area of Buenos Aires, the National Meteorological Service maintains warnings for storms, precipitation, wind, and snowfall in various provinces across the country.

In light of this scenario, the agency recommends following official updates, avoiding outdoor activities during storms, securing objects that may be displaced by the wind, and exercising caution while moving, especially in areas where rain reduces visibility.

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