Has Robinhood Summer Arrived? Four Experienced Players Review: Survival Rules After the Meme Frenzy

Author: MyToken

A new blockchain that launched just a month ago saw its DEX trading volume exceed $3.1 billion in its first week, briefly surpassing Ethereum and Base. This is Robinhood.

On July 31, the data platform MyToken held a Space discussion about Robinhood Chain, engaging in a heated debate on whether "Robinhood Summer has arrived, whether RWA narratives or MEME frenzy prevail, and how to find the next Alpha."

1. Why is it Hot? Timing, Location, and People

Robinhood Chain launched its mainnet on July 1. In just one week, its DEX trading volume reached $3.1 billion, placing it among the top five globally. On July 12, the daily trading volume was approximately $878 million, briefly surpassing Base and Ethereum. The number of active addresses peaked at 350,000, with daily transaction volume exceeding 10.4 million.

Why is it so popular? The guests provided several key insights.

Teacher Qiuqiu believes that timing is the primary reason. "Binance and major exchanges have previously explored the on-chainization of US stocks, but the Memes on chains like Base and Solana have already been played out, lacking heat and new users. Robinhood Chain just happens to provide a new entry point for US stocks." Additionally, Robinhood comes with its own traffic and brand recognition—it has over 10 million active users, transitioning from traditional brokerage to Web3. "It is associated with the Wall Street retail investor movement around GME, so people naturally have a favorable impression of it."

Teacher Fangyuan added external factors: Solana previously experienced a very successful Meme market, while several coins called out by CZ on BSC performed poorly. "The sentiment was already ignited, but many people missed out. Robinhood Chain just captured this wave of sentiment." Regarding internal factors, he pointed out that Robinhood Chain is based on Arbitrum's L2, with block times stable at around 100 milliseconds, "which is very fast and beneficial for bots and smart money trading."

Teacher Hongdou calculated: Robinhood has about 28 million global users, with over 10 million being active users. "The mainnet launched on July 1, which means it directly attracted over 10 million active users to the chain; this user base is unmatched by other chains." More critically, CEO Vlad Tenev personally got involved—initially stating on CNBC that Meme coins were "basically a dead end," he changed his tune on July 1, saying this chain is "very suitable for Meme coins," and on July 9, he directly tweeted, "Robinhood Summer is here." "When the boss personally promotes it, how can this wave of heat not explode?"

Teacher Lay's perspective was more straightforward: "At that time, US stocks were rising, and everyone was playing with US stocks. Those who didn’t understand US stocks had nowhere to go. When a new thing comes out, everyone rushes in to grab the first opportunity, casually buying a few hundred USD to hold. Coupled with the founder's promotion, they just hold on for a while longer."

2. What Stage Are We In Now? Starting, Overheated, or Tail End?

Regarding this question, the guests had clear disagreements.

Teacher Hongdou judged that the peak of enthusiasm has passed, but the ecosystem is just beginning. "By the end of July, daily active users have started to decline, dropping about 17%." Data shows that weekly DEX trading volume has decreased by 27%, with active accounts averaging about 275,000, a 7% decrease. "The alpha phase of Memes has passed; chasing high now carries significant risk. The real value lies in RWA and tokenized stocks, which are just beginning to take shape."

Teacher Fangyuan believes we are still in an early chaotic stage. "Robinhood Chain is currently in a state of disorder, with no unified launchpad and no official endorsement yet. It needs to have official backing and application tokens like Solana to be further observed."

Teacher Lay was the most pessimistic. "I feel it might just be over; there’s no liquidity left. It’s not like BSC has an alpha or contract expectations that might lead to follow-ups."

Teacher Qiuqiu tried to mediate: "It’s hard to judge. You see, in the past few days, other similar chains with traditional financial backgrounds haven’t continued to thrive, but Robinhood Chain is still holding on. However, today’s CZ’s BSC might steal most of the attention."

From the data, TVL is still growing, currently reaching about $325 million. However, the on-chain capital turnover rate (DEX trading volume/TVL) has dropped from 9.25 times in the second week of July to 1.68 times last Friday, indicating that capital inflow is more for financial returns (Robinhood Earn offers about 7% annualized yield) rather than trading.

3. Launchpad Battle Royale: NOXA Falls, Heroes Rise

The most dramatic moment on Robinhood Chain was the sudden shutdown of the leading launchpad NOXA.

After launching, NOXA quickly dominated the market, with peak daily fees reaching $2.33 million, four times that of Pump.fun on the same day. CASHCAT, the largest Meme coin on-chain, originated from it, with a market cap that once exceeded $200 million. However, on July 11, NOXA suddenly paused new token issuance, citing "the proliferation of new coins, copycat behavior, and a large number of bots creating duplicate tokens."

This incident ignited even greater enthusiasm.

Teacher Qiuqiu categorized launchpads into three types: first, mature teams like Pump.fun that migrated from Base; second, platforms casually created by wealthy individuals with traffic; third, various official background "grassroots teams." "Last week, everyone was buying tokens based on platform backgrounds, but this week, regardless of the brand, there’s no novelty; people are more focused on whether the tokens themselves are doing something."

Teacher Fangyuan believes that the prosperity after NOXA's shutdown is a "false prosperity." "Previously, NOXA held over 90% of the market share; after it fell, it was like the Warring States period, with various launchpads creating hype. But in the end, everyone will only play with the leading one, not the others. True prosperity will only begin after the launchpad conflicts are resolved and an officially recognized platform emerges."

As of July 20, Pons became the new leader with a daily trading volume of about $45 million and a 52.1% market share. However, competitors like Arrow and Stonkbroker are still eyeing the market. The battle for launchpads is far from over.

4. Trading Insights: Lessons and Experiences from Practice

When sharing personal trading cases, the guests had different experiences but pointed to the same issue: how to survive in this highly fragmented market.

Teacher Qiuqiu shared a story about missing out on Mars coin on BSC. His habit is to use his own AI tool to analyze projects one by one—feeding in contract addresses and scoring based on code quality, website content, team background, community feedback, etc. "At that time, I was playing with US stock tokens and Memes on Robinhood Chain every day, thinking that things on BSC were outdated, so I set them aside." As a result, that coin surged dramatically after hitting alpha. This missed opportunity made him reassess his judgment framework: "You have to go with the flow; don’t think your aesthetic is superior to others. What is often discussed by the public is more likely to become a mainstream trend."

Teacher Fangyuan wakes up at 5 AM every day to scan chains. "5 AM is when foreigners start to sleep, and Chinese people are still waking up; it’s a great time for alpha." However, he admitted that the main reason for his biggest losses was precisely "trusting his own judgment too much"—constantly adding positions when in a loss, getting deeper into trouble. "You can’t be blindly confident; when the market doesn’t recognize your logic, you have to acknowledge your losses."

Regarding specific chain choices, Teacher Fangyuan provided a very pragmatic suggestion: "For most ordinary people, the best opportunities to make money are on BSC. The culture on BSC is most suitable for Chinese people, whether it’s the project side or the community, where Chinese people dominate. The foreign culture on Solana has language differences, and it’s hard to grasp personality habits." He also illustrated that many projects that became popular on Solana are narratives that Chinese players can’t understand—"cultural barriers are a real existence."

Teacher Hongdou shared his experience of missing out on CASHCAT. "On the first day, the community was discussing it, and the price was very low. I thought: there’s no ecosystem on a new chain; it’s probably going to fail in three days. As a result, it surged 2100% in a week." Some traders turned $800 into over $1 million. His review had three points: first, the first explosive Meme on a new chain needs extra attention; "there are no other targets on a new chain, and the first one to break out is often the big leader"; second, pay attention to the CEO's statements; "Vlad Tenev tweeted that this chain is very suitable for Meme coins, which is a very clear signal"; third, Meme coins carry extreme risks, don’t go all in; "the average holding period is only about 100 seconds, and you don’t know where the peak is."

In terms of scanning chain techniques, many guests emphasized the importance of data tools. Teacher Hongdou mentioned looking at trading candlesticks, on-chain smart money flows, community discussion heat, and developers' historical records, "especially checking if the contract has restrictions that allow only buying but not selling." Teacher Fangyuan added that the market is more competitive than last year, "every chain is competing, every launchpad is competing, even the case sensitivity matters; you must find a suitable track for yourself and summarize your own methods." Teacher Qiuqiu's judgment framework is: if a project’s website content is completely off-topic, it’s likely to last no more than three days.

5. What to Watch Next? Narrative Judgments from Two Guests

The host's final question was directed at Teacher Qiuqiu: "You just mentioned that narratives are more important than specific brands. What trends do you see next? How do you judge if a trend is worth investing in?"

Teacher Qiuqiu categorized the current Meme market narratives into three types:

The first type is "Meme Resistance", with typical representatives like GME and its stock Meme tokens. "This narrative carries strong retail sentiment, opposing Wall Street and traditional institutions, making it naturally resonate with people." However, he also cautioned that this type of narrative comes quickly and leaves just as fast, "you need to keep an eye on the heat changes of the events themselves."

The second type is "AI Application", which is also his personal favorite direction. "It’s no longer just tokens that mention AI concepts in white papers, but projects that truly have AI Agent products and interactive experiences." He mentioned that the tool he developed is used to assist in such judgments—"feeding key information of a project into it to analyze whether it is continuously doing things and whether it has learning value." This tool is developed based on the Dify framework and is open-source, allowing community members to deploy and use it themselves. "AI has lowered the cost of entrepreneurship; it’s too easy to launch a coin now, so it’s even more important to verify whether it’s genuinely developing a product."

The third type is "Meme Culture", such as various Chinese cultural memes that emerged on BSC previously. "This track tests the grasp of community sentiment; catchy and easily spreadable content often ignites more than technically complex ones." He stated that he will continue to pay attention to these three lines, especially the latter two.

Teacher Fangyuan's answer was more focused, directly pointing out the most certain big direction: "The future trend is very clear, which is the Meme-ification of stocks."

His logical chain is very clear: Robinhood's core goal is to expand its user base from 300 million to 3 billion. "How to achieve this? Through the tokenization and Meme-ification of stocks. Every popular stock launching a Meme token can bring in a batch of traditional users." He specifically mentioned that the recent surge of Mars coin ($MARS) on BSC is a clear signal—"Google Meme, stock Meme, this trend has already emerged."

He reiterated the importance of focusing on BSC, "BSC is the best place for Chinese people to make money, whether it’s the project side or the community, where Chinese people dominate, and there are no cultural barriers."

Although the two teachers have different perspectives—Qiuqiu leans more towards a diversified layout of technology and cultural narratives, while Fangyuan focuses on the main line of stock Meme-ification—the consensus is clear: the fusion narrative of US stocks and crypto is the main battlefield that cannot be avoided in the future.

Disclaimer: The content of this article is compiled from the personal viewpoints shared by guests and does not constitute any investment advice. The risks of trading digital assets are high; please make cautious decisions.

AI Summary

The consensus among guests can be summarized in four points:

1. The short-term Meme heat has passed its peak, but the ecosystem is still in its early stages, and the real RWA narrative has yet to unfold;
2. The main narrative line is "stock Meme-ification," which aligns with Robinhood's logic of expanding from 300 million to 3 billion users;
3. In operations, avoid being stubborn; go with the flow, and Chinese players can prioritize the more culturally friendly BSC;
4. Make good use of on-chain data tools to assist decision-making, which is far more pragmatic than blindly chasing "hundred-fold passwords."

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