North America’s AI Data Center Demand in 2027 Expected to Be Twice the Deliverable Supply, Power Becomes a Decisive Constraint

Odaily Planet Daily reported that FUNDA stated on platform X that the demand for AI data centers in North America is expected to reach approximately 35GW by 2027 based on IT load metrics, while the actual deliverable supply is only between 16.5 and 23.4GW. The overlapping range of two independent supply estimates indicates a gap between demand and deliverable supply of 1.8 to 2.1 times, which is the core of this report.

The demand was cross-validated through two methods, yielding similar results. Based on CoWoS capacity construction estimates, the global power demand for chips is projected to be between 44 and 49GW; based on platform-specific bill of materials estimates, the result is 48.4GW. The current market discussion range is between 40 and 60GW, with the report estimating global demand to be around 50GW, of which North America accounts for about two-thirds.

Supply has been largely locked in, and capital investment cannot change this situation. The grid access path can deliver 11 to 14GW of IT load, entirely dependent on which projects enter the grid application queue before mid-2025; applications submitted today cannot contribute to the supply in 2027. After accounting for overlaps, post-device equipment can add 5.5 to 9.4GW of IT load, but orders for large gas turbine units have been scheduled until 2031. Since it typically takes 4 to 5 years from ordering to commercial operation, units ordered now will supply between 2030 and 2032.

Power delivery is a decisive constraint and is upstream of all aspects where project parties can accelerate through capital investment. Permitting approvals have stalled 78% of the 43GW of shelved projects. Over the past 12 months, power-side factors have caused the project delay ratio, weighted by megawatts, to reach 60% to 70%. Following this is a shortage of licensed labor: skilled electricians require 10,000 hours of training, and currently, only about 30% of the mechanical, electrical, and plumbing workforce is located in areas that carry 70% of the projects. Modular construction can compress construction cycles but cannot shorten queue times, only reducing the probability of commercial operation delays by 10% to 20%.

Scarcity has already been reflected in prices. The annual recurring revenue per GW for four comparison companies ranges from $8.3 billion to $50 billion, with NBIS signing prices within 18 months reaching 3 to 4 times its existing installed price. The significant repricing in the first and second quarters has ended, and the report expects the market to stabilize and rise slightly starting in the fourth quarter of 2026. As new supply comes online, generation-based rents are expected to decrease by about 20% to 30%, while utilization rates will remain high.

Four paths to power acquisition correspond to four different risks. xAI trades off doubled power costs and permitting approval risks for speed, having the shortest contract duration among the four companies; CRWV converts power delivery risk into refinancing risk; NBIS operates on customer prepayments, being the most direct evidence of price changes; IREN has historically legacy powered capacity and has the lowest capital costs among the four companies, but its queue situation for new capacity is the same as that of other companies.

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