VanEck Targets $500,000 for Bitcoin by 2029, a Forecast That Suits Its Own Balance Sheet

A round figure, a distant horizon, a well-understood interest. VanEck has set a new target: $500,000 for Bitcoin by 2029. This target fits into a much broader trajectory, where VanEck sees the price of Bitcoin climbing to $2.9 million by 2050 in its base scenario.

• VanEck has set a target of $500,000 for Bitcoin by 2029, supported by the BITCOIN Act, which could require the U.S. Treasury to acquire one million bitcoins.

• The strategy of spot Bitcoin ETFs continues to grow, as corporate treasuries reduce their exposure, fueling interest and optimistic predictions from VanEck.

A pillar supports the essence of VanEck's reasoning: the BITCOIN Act of 2024, a bill that would require the U.S. Treasury to acquire up to one million bitcoins by 2029. This volume alone would represent 4.8% of the total supply of 21 million BTC, in the hands of a single sovereign buyer.

Moreover, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs already held over 1.26 million BTC in February 2026, or about 6% of the total supply. A purchasing Treasury would add to this movement, not replace it.

Matthew Sigel, head of digital assets research at VanEck, goes even further on a shorter horizon. In May 2026, he reaffirmed a target of one million dollars per Bitcoin in the coming years. The $500,000 target for 2029 could therefore be, in VanEck's own eyes, a cautious reading of its own model as he explains in a CNN interview.

The contrast with the 2024-2025 cycle is striking. At that time, it was corporate treasuries in a Strategy-like manner that drove institutional demand. This strategy now shows signs of fatigue. At least 20 listed companies have reduced, stopped, or completely liquidated their Bitcoin treasury strategy since the beginning of the year, under the pressure of their debt and stock prices.

Institutional products, on the other hand, continue to absorb supply at a steady pace. And this shift suits VanEck quite well. More capital flows through ETFs, the higher the management fees rise. The incentive to publish optimistic long-term research naturally follows.

This does not make the analysis false, however. But VanEck remains both judge and party in this equation: it is both the manager of one of the leading spot Bitcoin ETFs and the author of the thesis that justifies investing more in it.

If Bitcoin were to reach $500,000 by 2029, its total market capitalization would exceed $10 trillion, assuming about 20 million coins in circulation at that date. The BITCOIN Act, if passed, would create what VanEck describes as a self-sustaining circle. Government purchases drive up the price, which validates the thesis, prompting other states to follow, which further drives up the price.

But none of this is guaranteed. If the BITCOIN Act remains stalled in Congress, or if the political climate turns against cryptocurrencies, one of the structural pillars of VanEck's forecast collapses. The $2.9 million scenario for 2050 assumes that Bitcoin captures 5 to 10% of global trade, a share that stablecoins, central bank digital currencies, and competing blockchains equally covet.

VanEck is not new to spectacular forecasts. The firm already mentioned this summer eight capitulation signals out of twelve activated to justify the idea of a cycle low, the same technical reading that underpins today's $500,000 target for 2029.